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Darwin Nunez can make big Liverpool prediction come true with one small tweak to his game

Darwin Nunez continues to miss chances for Liverpool but this season already feels very different for the Uruguayan

Darwin Nunez’s eyes would have briefly lit up at Molineux as, for the second Liverpool away match running, he had the chance to be a match-winner from the bench.

The Uruguayan memorably netted a decisive brace late on away at Newcastle United last month as 10-man Liverpool came from behind to snatch an unlikely win. That victory had already gone a long way to silence the outside taunts he regularly faced last year.

Now against Wolves, he was granted a similar opportunity again. Brought on for Cody Gakpo in the 56th minute seconds after the Dutchman’s equaliser for the below-par Reds, it briefly looked like the 24-year-old would be the hero for Jurgen Klopp’s men once again.

Playing a one-two with fellow substitute Luis Diaz from the edge of the box, the door briefly opened for Nunez as he sprinted past Craig Dawson towards the six-yard box when running onto the Colombian’s return pass. However, space was quickly sniffed out as he hurried a shot straight into goalkeeper Jose Sa’s outstretched leg.

There would have been more attention on such a miss last season at a time when an out-of-form Liverpool were struggling for points. But only five games into the new campaign, this is already a very different Reds side.

The scores might have been level when Nunez failed to net past Sa in the 70th minute, but 20 minutes later two late goals had clinched a 3-1 win. Moreover, rather than carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders after another high-pressure miss, the 24-year-old had still played his part in grinding out another Liverpool win.

Nunez is no longer the new boy on the block. While still a big-money signing, with his 2022 move from Benfica worth up to a club-record £85m, onlookers have moved on when it comes to scrutinising the Premier League’s latest strikers.

Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson is now the top-flight forward facing the greatest scrutiny as Mauricio Pochettino’s side, which owner Todd Bohely has spent over a £1bn on to ‘improve’ in one year in charge at Stamford Bridge, continue to flounder. Winning only one of their five Premier League matches this season, a 0-0 draw away at AFC Bournemouth on Sunday left the Londoners in 14th in the table.

Jackson’s only goal since joining Chelsea in a £32m move from Villarreal came in their solitary win so far against newly-promoted Luton Town. Only Erling Haaland, the Premier League’s leading goalscorer with seven goals already, has recorded more big chances missed (eight) than the Senegalese’s total of six.

For the record, Nunez has now missed four big chances, having been denied twice by the woodwork, the first forcing Matty Cash’s own goal, and missed a gaping goal in Liverpool’s 3-0 victory over Aston Villa before the international break. Along with the aforementioned rival pair, Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins is the only striker to miss more.

Haaland missed the most big chances in the Premier League last year too with 28, with Marcus Rashford (22) the only other player to spurn more big chances than Nunez’s return of 20. Considering the Manchester-based pair boasted 36 and 17 top-flight goals last season, in contrast to the Uruguayan’s total of nine, it was no surprise that their own misses were barely discussed in comparison.

Nunez’s saved shot against Wolves was his third on target of the campaign, following on from his match-winning brace at St. James’ Park. Taking 11 shots in total, it’s clear there is still work to be done in front of goal.

According to Opta, and cited by BBC Sport, the striker’s non-penalty xG per 90 mins since the start of last season stood at 0.68 before Liverpool’s trip to Wolves. Only Haaland and Newcastle United’s Callum Wilson are getting a more elite level of chances.

However, Nunez is not yet as clinical. Scoring 0.54 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, Harry Kane, Taiwo Awoniyi, Evan Ferguson, and Roberto Firmino, along with Haaland and Wilson, have all been more prolific in front of goal in the Premier League since the start of last season.

Of course, Nunez has been here before though. Scoring 14 goals in his first season with Benfica, with only six coming in the Primeira Liga, he would then fire home 26 in the Portuguese top-flight and 36 in all competitions in 2021/22 to earn his move to Liverpool in the first place. On more than one occasion last year, he shared his belief that the same would happen at Anfield.

“I still have many things to work on, for example my finishing,” he told Sky Sports in February. “But I think the same thing is happening to me as happened to Suarez. In his second year, he tore it up.

“Something similar happened to me already at Benfica. The first year went very badly for me and in the second, I exploded. Here, I think the same thing is happening. I hope next season will be like that. I’ll put my best forward and hopefully I’ll get a bit of luck.”

On paper, his return in front of goal is identical to the same stage last year – Five games, two goals and one assist. Yet starting only once this season, he has featured for 139 minutes in contrast to last season’s 235 minutes.

And, without a red card derailing his early progress, he’s currently contributing to a goal every 46.3 minutes. You can’t help but feel this year’s early glimpses are only a sign of things to come.

And while last season, there was not only scrutiny surrounding Nunez’s performances in front of goal, but whether he was even in the starting XI, he has been spared such treatment this year. When you are vying for starting opportunities with Mohamed Salah, Diogo Jota, Cody Gakpo, and Luis Diaz, rotation is always going to be inevitable with it no longer even a conversation whether he is starter or substitute.

“The season started with two goals more or less, and really good performances when he came on in the other games,” Klopp told reporters at the start of September when assessing Nunez’s start to the season. “Last year at that time he had a red card. That was the opposite start.

“Let me say, now we are in a much better place. In a world, a crazy world where nobody gets time anymore, we somehow managed to buy some time and now we go from here.”

Afforded time and now avoiding last season’s new boy pressure, Nunez continues to be a magnet for elite scoring chances. As Haaland has proven, nobody cares about your misses when your scoring in front of goal.

All that’s left is to turn those xG into goals as Liverpool sit back and wait for the striker to explode. No longer the Premier League’s fall guy, Nunez will be confident that his big goalscoring prediction is about to come true.

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