Nikola Jokic and Serbia will collide with Joel Embiid and Team USA in the Olympics semifinals on Thursday.
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PARIS — There’s one rather imposing obstacle standing between the USA and the gold medal game. And no, it’s not Serbia, the team on the other bench Friday in the semis.
Specifically, it’s a familiar threat, as in a three-time MVP, former NBA champion, lover of horses, and damager of dreams.
Nikola Jokic is all that, although he’ll need to be that and more to deny the Americans and deliver a massive upset in these Olympics. That’s because Jokic, despite his obvious greatness, isn’t playing next to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and his Denver Nuggets.
Serbia has Bogdon Bogdanovic and … not much else. The Serbs have appeared average at best in this tourney, needed overtime to beat Australia in the quarters — rallying from 24 points down — and have already lost twice to the USA this summer.
“We can’t get lulled to sleep because we beat them twice,” said USA coach Steve Kerr, sending a warning. “Does Jokic play 40 minutes? What else do they have up their sleeve? We have to be prepared for anything.”
Mostly, the greatest team in the world must be prepared for debatably the world’s greatest player. And that goes for Jokic, too. While he owns substantial victories over Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo and Joel Embiid, those past results were against them individually.
But collectively?
“We know we have the advantage in numbers,” Kerr said.
This is a ripe chance for the three USA bigs to get revenge against Jokic because he has built his NBA body of work at their expense.
Here’s how that happened:
Jokic sent Davis home twice
Davis has won an NBA title with the Lakers. The reason he doesn’t have multiple rings by now? You can start with Jokic, who eliminated Davis in the Western Conference Finals two years ago and then again last season in the first round.
How many total games did Davis win against Jokic in those best-of-sevens? One.
Jokic was beastly in both series, especially in the conference finals in 2023 when he dropped a triple-double in the elimination game, including a ridiculous step-back 3-pointer over Davis’ reach. He sank a similar dagger over AD in Game 1, and when the ball swished, AD looked at Jokic with an “Are you kidding me?” expression.
Jokic averaged 27.8 points (50% from the floor, 47% from deep), 14.5 rebounds and 11.8 assists in that series to earn the conference finals MVP, one of the more thorough performances in recent history. AD was good — 26.8 points, 14 rebounds — just not good enough.
Then last spring Jokic followed up with 28.2, 16.2 and 9.8. Again, AD was on the same level (28 and 15), and his biggest failure wasn’t against Jokic, but an inability to swat Murray’s fallaway game-winning buzzer-beater in Game 2.
Jokic bounced Bam on the big stage
The 2023 NBA Finals was Jokic’s crowning achievement and it came across the court from Adebayo, who won one game with the Miami Heat.
While history will reflect those facts, Adebayo was actually the Heat’s most consistent and reliable player in that series. He gave Jokic trouble at times, averaging almost 22 points and 12 rebounds, mainly by showing an improved outside jumper and being quick to the ball, helped by being 30 pounds lighter.
But his size also worked against him. Jokic was just too massive in that series, literally and figuratively. He averaged 30 points (on 58% and 42% shooting), 14 rebounds, 7 assists and 1.4 blocks, and he carried his chilly team in the elimination game.
MVPs: Joker 3, Embiid 1
In the arm wrestle over the league’s top individual award, Jokic flexed more muscle in a race that has been closer than the result reflects.
Jokic won two straight MVPs over runner-up Embiid. Then Jokic was in a solid position to make it three straight in 2022-23. Public opinion at times became contentious and the intensity was reflected in the performances delivered nightly by the two.
Then Embiid went next level with 47 points and 18 rebounds in a late January game against Jokic that gave him pole position for the MVP he eventually won, his first and only.
“The guy’s a beast,” Jokic said.
There has always been a healthy respect between the two centers. Jokic has said Embiid is his toughest assignment.
Last season, Embiid had a historic start and put himself in position to draw even, MVP-wise, with Jokic. Embiid averaged 32 points in November, then went ballistic in December — 40 points on 60% shooting and 12 rebounds, with a pair of 50-pieces that month.
Then he missed nine weeks following knee surgery and didn’t meet the league’s new minimum on games played to be eligible for major awards. That erased Jokic’s biggest competition for his third MVP.
But now it’s 3 vs. 1 in the Olympic semifinals. And this is the biggest challenge of Jokic’s basketball life.
“Obviously he’s a tough cover,” Davis said. “But we have three bigs who just keep rotating and make it tough for him. We’ll give him a steady diet. Each of us offer a different look, different size. He’ll have to deal with that.”
Davis can defend on the perimeter, the spot where Jokic runs the offense and shoots from deep. Embiid offers the size to make Jokic labor in the paint, while Adebayo brings quickness. It’s a 1-2-3 punch that has been devastating and unmatchable in the Olympics so far.
“We have a lot of scoring guards,” Davis said. “We really don’t need to do that. Our job as bigs is to do the jobs we’re built to do. We give the guards second-chance opportunities with rebounds, blocks, just do our part. Just being aggressive and being dominant.”
It helps that Embiid is playing better in the Olympics and at the right time. The last two games have shown a friskier and more active Embiid, who reported to the team out of shape — partly because his creaky knee, which bothered him in the spring playoffs, prohibited him from doing much work until now.
“You saw it against Puerto Rico, against Brazil,” Davis said. “He came out ready to play. The crowd was booing him, but he embraces it and we embrace it for him. It sparks our team.”
Although Jokic has those career achievements against AD, Adebayo and Embiid, those three have played well against Jokic, too. It might be one-sided in terms of the bottom line, not necessarily so performance-wise.
Kerr will probably stick with size against Serbia and keep a pair of bigs on the floor whenever he’s in the game. The idea is for Jokic to see a pair of elite defensive players in his face, forcing him to surrender the ball.
“It’s good that we can offer that kind of help,” Davis said. “When we have two bigs on the floor, that bothers him a little bit. We’ll game plan and be ready.”
This is a USA payback game, for the MVPs and NBA championships and deep playoff runs he denied three American big men. Just because this is the Olympics and a different brand of basketball, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo haven’t forgotten.
“We want to make sure we’re locked in and follow the plan,” Embiid said. “We want to do what the three of us are designed to do.”
