Nils Hoglander (Photo Source: IMAGN)

The Vancouver Canucks have signed forward Nils Hoglander to a three-year, $9 million contract extension, NHL.com reported. The extension will keep the former second-round pick in Vancouver until the 2028 season.

Hoglander enters this season in the final year of a two-year contract signed in 2023 with an AAV of $1.1 million, according to PuckPedia.

While the signing appears to bode well for both Nils Hoglander and the Vancouver Canucks, there are three reasons the Canucks should not have signed Hoglander to this extension.

Why Vancouver Canucks should not have signed Nils Hoglander to an extension

#3. The cap hit is too high

Nils Hoglander’s current deal comes with a $1.1 million cap hit. That seems fine for a bottom-six forward who produced 36 points last season.

While the Canucks’ most likely see Hoglander’s 24 goals from last year as a sign of things to come, the fact is that the Swede has yet to show high-end potential.

At this point, Hoglander’s deal looks to be a massive overpay for a player who may not produce much beyond his career averages.

#2. The extension ties up valuable cap space

The Canucks are among the teams strapped for cap space. Of course, the cap figures to go up as much as $92 million for next season, tying up that space with a deal like Hoglander’s doesn’t make sense.

The Canucks should be focused on signing their budding stars to long-term deals. Players like Aatu Raty will eventually need new deals.

At the end of the day, the Canucks may end up needing to move players to clear cap space, potentially putting Hoglander on the trade block. If that’s the case, his contract may be untradeable if the production isn’t there to back up the cap hit.

#1. The Cancuks are banking on Hoglander’s potential

As mentioned earlier, Hoglander scored 24 goals in 2023-24. As such, the Canucks are banking on him becoming a consistent 20-goal scorer with 30-goal potential. While this could certainly come to fruition, there’s no guarantee that it will.

Therefore, the Cancuks are betting on Hoglander turning into the player they envision him to be. If the bet pays off, Hoglander could make the contract look like a steal. After all, paying $3 million per season for a 30-goal scorer is bonkers in today’s NHL.

Nevertheless, there’s an equal or even higher chance that Nils Hoglander doesn’t meet expectations. Ultimately, the upside is that the cap hit would neither be crippling nor would Hoglander’s contract be impossible to trade.

Canucks fans hope the deal works out in the end, making this contract a steal for the Vancouver Canucks.